Theory · a fight with ourselves

Can a net put a ballistic missile in a sack?

Müllabfuhr im Himmel is the joke that wants to be an engineering question. Here we try to kill it, then try to keep it alive.

01 · The no

A polymer net is not a Patriot.

A short-range ballistic re-enters at roughly Mach 3 to 4. An IRBM much faster. An ICBM re-entry vehicle around 7 km/s. Kinetic energy grows with the square of speed. One kilogram at 7 km/s carries about 25 MJ, several times TNT of the same mass. A fishing net that catches a 30 m/s quad will not catch a 2000 m/s warhead. It will become gas, or a brief spark in the plasma sheath.

A 50 metre rubbish sack around the bang is not a containment vessel. A typical SRBM warhead dumps its energy in a radius measured in hundreds of metres. The sack is inside the fireball. Command-detonated fuzes do not care that you hugged them. They go off because someone told them to, or because the shock of the hug looks like impact.

Against a true ballistic, a net is a slogan. Hit-to-kill exists because the energy of the closing speed is the weapon.

02 · The yes, if we cheat the word ballistic

Slow things in the sky are a different animal.

A Shahed-class inbound sits around 50 m/s. A subsonic cruise missile around 250 m/s. Fortem and Argus already net drones in that neighbourhood. A fishing-trawl of four or ten interceptors is a geometry problem, not a plasma problem. Warning time is minutes if you see them far enough. That is the Stachelschwein intercept layer, and it does not need a sack.

The only way a bag makes physics is if relative speed goes near zero. That is rendezvous, not intercept: match the trajectory, fly formation, then throw a shroud. That is docking. It wants minutes, not milliseconds, and a target that still flies like an aircraft. A ballistic re-entry vehicle in the last four seconds of plasma does not offer that appointment.

Boost phase is the other cheat: the rocket is still slow, still fat, still on fire. Seeing it from a German roof is the joke. Seeing it from a high ear (balloon, mother drone, someone else's radar) is a military problem, and then you still need an effector that is not PETG.

03 · Verdict

Keep the Müllabfuhr for drones and for slow cruise. Print it on the intercept page as a direction, not as a Patriot replacement. A ballistic in a bin is folklore until someone shows a closing speed under a few tens of metres per second. We will not smuggle that folklore into Scanner v0.1.

Fakten-Tabelle · Fact table
Fakt
ICBM re-entry on the order of 7 km/s. 1 kg at 7150 m/s ≈ 26 MJ, more than five times 1 kg of TNT (≈ 4.2 MJ/kg).kinetic energy weapon order-of-magnitude · TNT 4.184 MJ/kg
Fakt
Subsonic cruise typically Mach 0.7. Shahed-class roughly 185 km/h. That is net territory, not THAAD territory.open reporting on cruise vs one-way drones
Hypothese
A swarm net against cruise is untested and expensive in mass, but plasma does not forbid it. Against SRBM/IRBM/ICBM in terminal phase: practically impossible with polymer or a textile sack.this page
Hypothese
“A 50 metre rubbish sack around the bang” stays an image, not a design.John, 9 September 2026